I didn't have time for a first-round preview, but those matchups were better than expected.
The Los Angeles Kings vs the Edmonton Oilers was the most bizarre series I've ever seen. The Kings should have swept the Oilers but instead melted down in the third period in Games 3 and 4 by taking their foot off the gas. Then they didn't even show up in Game 5 at home, where they had the best home record. Going from a potential sweep to losing four straight is heartbreaking and mindboggling, but it's a good building block for a mostly young team. I'm sure we'll see this series for part five next year.
It's surprising the Tampa Bay Lightning didn't do better. I presumed they would win because I thought Matthew Tkachuk was done for the season. Oops.
The Game 7 between the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche was epic. I always thought the Stars would come back, but not like that. You couldn't write an ending any better than Mikko Rantanen fueling his new team over his old team. Surprisingly, that wasn't the best Game 7. The St. Louis Blues looked like they would run away with it, and they did until the Winnipeg Jets pulled their goalie for not one but two goals to tie the game with two seconds left. Unreal. The Jets won in double overtime when the Blues on the ice looked out of gas. They were only in the defensive zone for about 28 seconds, so I don't know why that happened.
A1 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Florida Panthers
Season Series: 3-1 Panthers
Playoff Series History: 1-0 Panthers
What We Learned: The Panthers dominated the Lightning, while the Maple Leafs didn't choke for once.
Stars to Watch: The Maple Leafs are led by William Nylander, Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, and John Tavares, as usual. But I'm intrigued about Max Pacioretty, his game and series-winning goal, and whether he can build off it. Matthew Knies was also impressive in round one. Matthew Tkachuk returns, and the Panthers are reborn. Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, and Sam Bennett round out their top scorers. Defenseman Nate Schmidt had two game-winning goals.
Goalie Problem: Anthony Stolarz's career has been strange, but he's making the most of his opportunity and looks like a number-one goalie. He now faces his former teammate. I've never been the biggest Sergei Bobrovsky fan, but he usually delivers when needed.
X-Factor: This should be a hard-hitting affair because that's how the Panthers play. They are first in hits during the season and postseason. They were a bit dirty against the Lightning. The Maple Leafs aren't timid, but they'll need to be even more physical to beat the Panthers.
Fun Fact: The Maple Leafs haven't reached the conference finals since 2002. The Panthers have gone the last two postseasons.
Prediction: The Lightning were a better matchup for the Maple Leafs, but not sweeping the Senators gave them more experience they'll need against the Panthers. Every time I pick against the Panthers they win. I'm still picking against them because I feel this Maple Leafs team is ready to take the next step. Maple Leafs in seven. But it wouldn't surprise me if the Panthers won.
M1 Washington Capitals vs. M2 Carolina Hurricanes
Season Series: 2-2
Playoff Series History: 1-0 Hurricanes
What We Learned: The Capitals finally won a playoff series, and the Hurricanes did what they always do: beat the Devils badly and win in the first round.
Stars to Watch: The Capitals are led by Dylan Strome, who is having his best season, Alex Ovechkin, and Tom Wilson. Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis, and Andrei Svechnikov lead the Hurricanes. On what feels like his tenth team, Taylor Hall has been rejuvenated. Logan Stankoven has been great, but not Mikko Rantanen great.
Goalie Problem: Logan Thompson was one of the best acquisitions ever. He's the best goalie the Capitals have had since peak Braden Holtby. A healthy Frederik Andersen should make this an almost-even matchup. But if he gets injured again, that's a problem.
X-Factor: The Hurricanes' archnemesis is having someone step up to score when needed. Against the Devils, that wasn't a factor, but it will be against the Capitals, who have players who have stepped up.
Fun Fact: The Hurricanes have never met a shot they didn't like. Their season shot attempt differential was 1341, almost double that of the next closest team. In the playoffs, they are only fourth best, but they still lead in shots on goal. The Capitals are about average for both.
Prediction: The Hurricanes reach the second round and flame out every year except 2023. This is the best team they've had, and they should win the series, but there's something magical about the Capitals. This team reminds me of the Stanley Cup team. I don't think they'll win it all, but they'll probably beat the Hurricanes. Capitals in seven.
C1 Winnipeg Jets vs C2 Dallas Stars
Season Series: 3-1 Jets
Playoff Series History: None
What We Learned: The Stars had a great series against the Avalanche, capped off with an even better Game 7. The Jets decided to top the Stars Game 7 and won a crazier game against the Blues in double overtime.
Stars to Watch: Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, Cole Perfetti, and Mason Appleton led the Jets, but many players, including Scheifele, are banged up. Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz, and mostly third-liner Wyatt Johnston lead the Dallas Stars. Other than Game 5, the Stars haven't reached their potential.
Goalie Problem: Jake Oettinger hasn't quite reached the level he did in his first playoff run, but he's getting close. That's bad news for everyone else. Connor Hellebuyck might be winning his third Vezina, but he continues his uneven postseason play. I wouldn't have much confidence in him if I were a Jets fan.
X-Factor: The Stars beat a great Avalanche team without their two best players. Jason Robertson and Miro Heiskanen are expected to be back at some point during this series. If they can even produce half of what they were doing, it would be extremely hard to beat this team, especially the banged-up Jets.
Fun Fact: The Jets haven't lost a playoff game at home, while Stars coach Peter Deboar hasn't lost a Game 7. Those two things could come to a head.
Prediction: I'm betting the Blues series took a lot out of the Jets. The Stars have more talent, depth, and a better playoff goalie. The Jets have home ice but not much else. Assuming Jamie Benn doesn't take more mind-bogglingly stupid penalties, ugh, the Stars should win. Stars in six or seven.
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers
Season Series: 2-2
Playoff Series History: 1-0 Golden Knights
What We Learned: The Golden Knights eeked out a tight series win over the Wild, and the Oilers resurrected themselves to dominate an improved Kings team.
Stars to Watch: Tomas Hertl, Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, and Shea Theodore led the Golden Knights. Eichel had some nice passes in round one. William Karlsson brought soul and grit. Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Evan Bouchard led the Oilers. But don't discount how important Connor Brown and Corey Perry were in the first round. I'm still amazed at what Corey Perry can do at 39.
Goalie Problem: Calvin Pickard assumed the number one goalie spot for the Oilers. He's had a very strange career. The Oilers usually go through goalie pretty quickly, just ask Stuart Skinner, so we'll see how long this lasts. Currently, he's undefeated in these playoffs. Adin Hill looks great sometimes, other times, it's hard to imagine he's a number one goalie. He'll be tested even more than he was against the Wild.
X-Factor: It's unlikely the Golden Knights' top lines will outperform the Oilers, meaning depth scoring will be important. But when the Oilers play their bottom lines, they actually do produce better than the Golden Knights' bottom lines. The key is for the Oilers to not get behind too much, although that didn't matter against the Kings because they gave up. The Golden Knights won't.
Fun Fact: The Golden Knights have the fewest giveaways these playoffs, and the Oilers have almost the fewest takeaways. A complete reversal of both from the regular season.
Prediction: You never know which Oilers team will show up, but they seem to have unlocked something toward the end of the Kings series. Assuming they can keep it going, there's no reason they can't beat the Golden Knights, who were very lucky to get past the Wild. I didn't like the way the Golden Knights looked in round one. The Oilers in six.