If you watched a TV show and season two ended exactly like season one, a wave of thoughts would go through your head. Most likely, it was puzzlement and anger and why did I waste my time watching that? The 2025 NHL playoffs feels like that. The Western Conference Finals was a rehash of last season. The Eastern Conference Finals was a repeat of two seasons ago. Only both were worse. Now we end with the same two teams and most likely the same result.
The data said the Edmonton Oilers would crush the Dallas Stars, and they did. So I'm not surprised. I picked them anyway because I've been personally pulling for them the last few years. The Stars, Oilers, and Toronto Maple Leafs are the teams I want to win the Stanley Cup the most. But it's puzzling why the Stars couldn't win anyway and, more importantly, why they suck in conference finals. The Stars are better from top to bottom than the Oilers. Not by much, but they are. They played worse than last season, even after adding Mikko Rantanen. They couldn't buy a goal against them, which is odd since the Oilers are not a defensive juggernaut. They aren't the Winnipeg Jets. They continue to take dumb penalties, especially Jamie Benn, who doesn't learn despite being 35. The Stars start the series slow and are terrible in almost every first period. Logically, that makes no sense. Did you not prepare for the game? Did you not sleep well? That falls on coaching. Speaking of which…
Coach Pete Deboer may be perfect in Game 7, but you want to win before that, and he still hasn't won anything. He alienates most of his goalies, and he's starting to do that with Jake Oettinger, who should not have been pulled so early in Game 5. Neither goal was his fault, and one was on a power play. Yes, you want to send the team a message, but you also send it to your franchise goalie. The Stars have now lost three straight conference finals, which hasn't been done since the Islanders in the late 70's. I think Deboer is overrated. He's not a bad coach, just overrated. He doesn't learn from his mistakes, either.
Nothing will be perfect, but you can see the stark difference in the Oilers vs. the Stars. The Oilers started slow in the series and in games against the Kings. Their penalty kill was also atrocious. But they made adjustments and improved each series and are now playing for another Stanley Cup. I don't see any improvement in the Stars, which is why they have lost three straight conference finals.
As for the Stanley Cup rematch, which no one wanted, I'll have more to say in the prediction.
A3 Florida Panthers vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers
Season Series: 1-0 Panthers
Playoff Series History: 1-0 Panthers
What We Learned: The Oilers continued improving and stifled the Stars. The Panthers pummeled an opponent they've owned and even came back when it looked over.
Stars to Watch: Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are one-two in playoff scoring. Zach Hyman is out for the year, which is a major blow. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins's versatility, Evan Bouchard's bombs, and Evander Kane and Corey Perry's net presence round out the top scorers. The Panthers have ten players who are in double-digits in scoring. Aleksander Barkov, Sam Bennett, and Matthew Tkachuk reclaimed the top spots. Brad Marchand, Eetu Luostarinen, and Anton Lundell are still the best line with a plus-minus of 11 or 12.
Goalie Problem: Stuart Skinner has been hot but he's been hot before and inevitably craters. It's like a Ryan Fitzpatrick/Fitzmagic cycle. We are due for a crater so that's not good for the Oilers. Surprisingly, Sergei Bobrovsky didn't face many shots against the Hurricanes, but he should be tested more here. At least he's delivered when called upon.
X-Factor: Connor McDavid. When McDavid says he wants to score, he does. He's going to have to do that a lot. I'm surprised he doesn't do it more often, but I assume it takes a lot of energy, and it's not as easy as he makes it look. The good thing is McDavid and Draisaitl aren't as tried and banged up as last season.
Fun Fact: Each team has three players in the top six in playoff plus-minus. Journeyman defenseman Jake Walman is first overall, which is just bizarre. I laugh when I hear his name or see him because Walman is a funny name, and I never heard of him until a month ago. The have been four previous Stanley Cup rematches and it's 2-2 on the previous winner winning again. The data is split in this rematch.
Prediction: I don't know why this will be any different than last season. This playoff's theme is nothing has changed. The Panthers should have swept the Oilers last year but took their foot off the gas, letting the Oilers come back, and then said enough of this and won in seven. The Oilers have improved since, but so have the Panthers. The Oilers don't match up well against the Panthers' style of play. The Panthers are a better version of the Kings and the Oilers struggled against them. I don't see why the Panthers won't win in five games. The only thing going for the Oilers is McDavid, and they are improving each round. They could win, but I don't see why they would. Panthers in five or six.