I always hate when a team I predict to lose keeps winning. The two Panthers series are the only blemishes on my bracket. I didn’t expect much with the Bruins losing their top two centers. But they defied expectations in the regular season. I figured revenge and Jeremy Swayman would be enough. I thought we’d get a reversal of last postseason, where the Bruins would win after being down 3-1. The Bruins definitely had their chances. David Pastrnak needed to make that breakaway goal in Game 6. If he had, the rest of the game would have been different. Even if it stayed the same, we would have had overtime. Then there’s Sam Bennett’s goal in Game 4. That was not a goal.
I don’t care how soft the crosscheck was. Bennett checked a Bruin in the back, which caused him to lose balance and fall into Swayman. That’s not a goal, and it’s a penalty. I don’t like the reasoning that if it was a goal on the ice, it stays, but if it was called not a goal, it also would have been upheld. That’s saying both are correct. Both can’t be correct. It’s not a goal. It’s not different from Jordan Staal’s crosscheck into the boards against the Rangers. If you hit someone from behind into the boards, that’s a penalty every time. It doesn’t matter how hard you hit. I don’t even know why Staal was surprised.
The Vancouver Canucks power play is atrocious. They were gifted a four-minute power play in Game 7 and did nothing. I don’t even know if they had a shot on goal. Then they pulled the goalie with two minutes left and had no shots. They would have been better off leaving the goalie in net. You also can’t win games if you don’t shoot. You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take. Their power play wasn’t that bad during the regular season.
I’m sad we only got one Game 7 when we could have had four. But this was one of the better second rounds in memory.
M1 New York Rangers vs. A1 Florida Panthers
Season Series: 2-1 Panthers
Playoff Series History: 1-0 Rangers
What We Learned: The Rangers beat the Hurricanes even when not playing well. The Panthers continued their surprising dominance over the Bruins.
Stars to Watch: The Panthers are still led by Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, and Carter Verhaeghe. The Panthers have eight players with six or more points. Only the Stars have more. Mika Zibanejad, Vincent Trocheck and Artemi Panarin lead the Rangers. Chris Kreider won Game 6 against the Hurricanes by himself with his third-period hat trick. They both have guys that can score the game-winner.
Goalie Problem: Igor Shesterkin is only below Jeremy Swayman in playoff SV% (goalies with more than three starts). He’ll be tested by the Panthers, who shoot as much as the Hurricanes, which he survived. Sergei Bobrovsky was just good enough again, but he made a few key saves. However, eventually, goalies are exposed, and I think this may be the round. I remember when Bobrovsky almost singlehandedly beat the Bruins while on the Columbus Blue Jackets. But he’s not that goalie anymore.
X-Factor: With evenly matched teams, it usually comes down to special teams, turnovers, or goalie miscues. We’ll rule out the latter. They are one and two in shorthanded goals during the playoffs, so expect some shorties. Their penalty kill is equal, but the Rangers have a better power play. The Panthers takeaway slightly more but giveaway almost twice as much as the Rangers. The Rangers have the edge.
Fun Fact: The Panthers score the fewest goals in the first period. Only the Maple Leafs had a lower first-period goal percentage. The Rangers have scored 11 in each period.
Prediction: The Rangers have only lost two games and haven’t even played their best hockey yet, while the Panthers have only three losses but have played their best hockey and steamrolled their opponents in those games. If the Rangers play their best, the Panthers can’t beat them. As great as the Panthers have been, it doesn’t feel magical like last postseason. However, the Rangers have had magical comebacks, Rangers in seven.
C1 Dallas Stars vs. P2 Edmonton Oilers
Season Series: 2-1 Stars
Playoff Series History: 6-2 Stars
What We Learned: The Stars would have swept the Avalanche if they kept the lead in Game 1. The Oilers gave it all they had but were the better team against the banged-up Canucks.
Stars to Watch: Wyatt Johnston, Jason Robertson, and Miro Heiskanen continue to lead the Stars in scoring. However, veterans Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn are close behind. Roope Hintz should return from injury at some point. Chris Tanev is surprisingly fourth in time on ice. He should really be first. Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Evan Bouchard are all in double digits in points. Evander Kane and Dylan Holloway are starting to heat up.
Goalie Problem: Jake Oettinger still has another gear, and he’ll need to hit it in this series. Stuart Skinner got pulled and had to sit a game. He was average, but he also didn’t face many shots. He’ll face more now, enabling him to hit a groove. He’ll also need to stop them. The Stars have a massive advantage in net.
X-Factor: The Star’s third line is as good as some team’s first line. The Oilers have a massive dropoff after their first two lines. Of course, they have three centers, but they make either Nugent-Hopkins or Draisaitl play wing to McDavid. If you spread the top six on three lines instead of two, maybe you’d actually get depth scoring. The Oilers lost to the Avalanche in the conference finals two years ago because of this. The Avalanche also had better defense like the Stars. History has a funny way of repeating.
Fun Fact: The Oilers’ power play is still at 37%, while the Stars’ penalty kill is 69% in the playoffs. You can make the correlation. Luckily, the Stars don’t take many penalties. The last time the Stars beat the Oilers in the playoffs, they won the Stanley Cup.
Prediction: This should be a high-scoring series. The Stars are the better team, though, and beating the defending champs, Golden Knights and Avalanche, is far superior to beating the Kings and a banged-up Canucks team. McDavid seems injured, and Skinner isn’t playing his best hockey currently. If the Stars play to their potential, no one can beat them. The only question is whether they sweep the Oilers or if it goes six or seven. That I don’t know, I’ll say Stars in six.