Those were some pretty epic and tight-scoring conference finals. The Florida Panthers beating the New York Rangers isn’t too surprising. The Rangers imploded their last conference finals appearance, and I always underestimate the Panthers. But I’m dumbfounded that the Edmonton Oilers beat the Dallas Stars.
The Stars have a better team than the Oilers in every way. They won games two and three and should have won game one. Had they won in overtime instead, they would have been looking for the sweep in game four with a two-goal lead. Instead, it was the turning point of the series. The Oilers came back and tied the series two apiece. They annihilated the Stars in Game 5. The Stars bounced back in Game 6, and before they scored, I remarked this was the kind of game they could win 1-0. And they would have if they hadn’t spotted the Oilers two early power-play goals. If those two penalties hadn’t occurred and the Stars had scored the overtime winner, they would have won in six. Instead, they went home. This is a season the Stars will regretfully look back on for a long time. Joe Pavelski is now retiring without a Stanley Cup.
The Oilers and Panthers have two players in the top five in plus-minus and three in the top eight. Last year, the Golden Knights had three, and the Panthers had one. The team with the most almost always wins. I only picked the Panthers to win last season because their run defied logic. Sadly, the plus-minus can’t help us this year.
A1 Florida Panthers vs. P2 Edmonton Oilers
Season Series: 2-0 Panthers
Playoff Series History: None
What We Learned: The Panthers continued their playoff dominance to make their second straight Stanley Cup appearance. The Oilers beat both division winners and continued their second-half comeback.
Stars to Watch: The Panthers are led by Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe, Anton Lundell and Sam Reinhart. The Panthers have nine players with eight or more points. The big five of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Evan Bouchard are playing at elite levels. The dropoff afterward is steep. Quite a few Oilers have a negative plus-minus, including Evander Kane.
Goalie Problem: Both Sergei Bobrovsky and Stuart Skinner have their critics, but they played greatly above expectations. Skinner had his best performance in the Game 6 clincher against the Stars. I would say this matchup is about even, but either could have a bad game. Neither goalie has a SV% above .910.
X-Factor: The Oilers power play against the Panthers will determine the series. The Oilers struggled against the Stars penalty kill in the first few games in the series, and it’s nowhere near as good as the Panthers penalty kill. The Panthers do take more penalties than the Stars, about as many as the Canucks did.
Fun Fact: The last two teams that returned to the Stanley Cup Finals after losing, the 2009 Penguins and the 1984 Oilers, won.
Prediction: I’m stumped. On the one hand, the Panthers should win, but I picked them last season in the finals, and they lost. The Oilers could win but tend to rely too much on power play. And they struggle to score when they don’t get power plays or go cold on them. The Panthers are healthier than last season and have more experience. They are the more physical and balanced team and will probably get a better performance from their goalie. I’d like the Oilers to win, but I assume the Panthers will win. The Stars would have given the Panthers a better series as they are more evenly matched. But the Oilers did beat the Stars so they could beat the Panthers. The Oilers would have to get memorable performances from Skinner and McDavid to win. Panthers in six or seven.